How does Leaders craft their Foreign Policy “FP” Strategy and criteria for FP decisions? Is FP beta greater than 1 and accounted for?

In other words on what basis and aspects does leaders and ultimately countries whether categorized as major powers or others take strategic decisions of engaging in or more / cutting or decreasing foreign relations with other countries or even deciding of altering the country’s grand strategy towards more / less involvement in the international / regional security or economic or political arena ? Beside prompt reaction to short term international/FP tactics or situation euphoria or historical ideological sentiments, are there any other reasonable scientific highly calculated factors based on a well-defined Balances Score Card “BSC” or SAWT analysis when dealing with International Relations “IR” / Foreign Policy “FP”/ National Security “NS” issues? Asking same questions to an Investment / Finance Manager will be easier since relying on Investment portfolio management and Corporate Finance techniques having advantage of well-defined and measurable equations and ratios. Guess such technicalities are not available much in “IR” / “FP fields. Nevertheless, think each country could treat its FP relations as a portfolio of its contemplated strategy w/other countries in a manner similar to any investment manager strategy while dealing w/ capital markets fluctuations affecting stocks / finance projects. Meaning any investment manager pre deciding purchasing/ exit strategy to /from certain stocks, weighs his options/ prevailing and projected market circumstances along with current and future cash flows expected from such stocks to take appropriate decision. One of the famous investment equations are Return on Investment “ROI” using Capital Market Pricing Model “CAPM” approach and Present Value “PV”. My Point of view, such equations and models could be applied in the IR, NS &FP field by facilitating and weighing strategy options “either engage / exit” towards each country by applying the following equation with its embedded factors derived from the original finance / economic equation illustrated in the attached figure:

For Country “j”:

RORi = RFPj+{(βi,w *NSβi,j)*RFPi}


RORi= return on relation with country “i” that will decide whether engage / decrease

RFPj= return on FP portfolio for country “j” except for country “i”.

βi,w= Beta showing correlation between country “i”&world meaning its weight and classification in international / regional arena. i.e. super or major power, etc…

NSβi,j= Beta showing correlation between National Security of countries “i&j” meaning how correlated are their NS circles.

RFPi= return on FP portfolio for country “i” except for country “j” measuring whether country “i” is an active player in international / regional arena or not.

Numerical measures could be established easily to the A/M notions based on each countries desire in depicting its most comfortable form of viable BSC.

The PV equation as depicted in the attached figure could be redefined in the same manner of the previously mentioned ROR equation where CF could be redefined as contemplated economic / trade future CF expected to increase / decrease post FP decision to engage / exit relations with country “i”. The beauty of such argument is discovering the potential of mixing multi fields together by utilizing the essence of its methodologies / tools / equations in different scientific forms while tailoring its numerical measurements according to each country’s needs and system. Bottom line, I highly think countries should be more scientifically oriented and more prudent when tackling and calculating FP issues and taking decisions affecting international arena as apparently most of world countries interests are correlated and have a beta greater than 1.BwgNdEkIAAAjfx4 BwgMJBbIIAAmaM4


About samarabuwarda

Life is a puzzle so make sure to gather the right pieces. Lock the goal&stay focused. Observe,analyze& interpret.
This entry was posted in Egypt, National Security, Sisi, Strategy and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

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