#Egypt Foreign Policy “FP” strategic shifting: Is it Permanent or just rearranging of relations and diversifying FP portfolio??

International relations literature identifies international system under three categories: Uni, bi and multi polar system. No doubts that during the early 90’s it was a unilateral system in favor of US post the USSR fall ending the cold war era, but since that time and during the few past decades, the world has witnessed the climbing of several economic powers and tigers into the international arena. Thus, redefining the economic international system into a multipolar one had lately reflected such fact impact and consequences on the international political arena since it is well known that economy and politics walk hand by hand together. Being characterized as flexible system is one of the advantages of a multi polar system by granting regional powers and moderate countries maneuvering options and wider scope of choices while crafting its FP strategy and a better pragmatic implementation based on cost / benefit calculations of such strategy.

That being said, this article>> http://www.businessinsider.com/this-map-shows-which-countries-prefer-china-over-the-us-2014-9, introduces an interesting argument in FP and IR affairs by coming up with an interesting map depicting countries favoring US or China. It tackles as well the fact that China within no time will be ranked and placed on top of the world’s economy proving truly that economics and politics are two faces for the same coin.

What attracted my attention in the map is Egypt’s classification as higher ratings to China than to US, despite the article revealed no further clarification / information regarding basis of calculating such data and its associated assumptions, will assume it is a hypothetical scenario and base analysis on the attached article map as it is with no further adjustments. I guess to decide if the map’s conclusion is in US or China’s favor, it would be favorable to compare it with same countries preferences 5 /10 years ago to truly stand upon the assumption that US / China achieved FP success / deterioration.

This analysis, assuming that Egypt is currently having higher preference ratings for China over US, will try to answer the question of why such FP shift happened since it is well known that Egypt FP during the past decades had more preference towards US.

First of all to answer this question, comparisons between Egypt’s FP situations/actions pre and post June 30 revolution is a must to have a thorough understanding of reasons behind such shift. In addition, I assumed introducing a table depicting an International Interaction Indicator (III) for illustrative purposes that allows us to measure numerically countries international interactions / behavior in the international arena and mentioning the associated interpretation of each action which will further explain the reasons and facilitate the analysis idea. It is also of great importance to bear into mind that FP and IR is a two way road and that it takes two to tango stemming from the fact that FP field is similar to physics in Newton’s famous third law quote stating “every action has a has an equal and opposite reaction”.

That being said, two chart figures are introduced depicting what I think from my personal point of view, Egypt’s III with some key regional and international players pre and post June 30 revolution. The pre June era is specifically concentrating on MB ruling year as during past decades, Egypt’s FP and III was more or less the same except for the year ruled by MB. As it appears from the chart, US remained in its favorable position that it attained and achieved in Egypt’s FP over decades, as MB preserved US position in Egypt FP portfolio and further increased Egypt’s III by introducing new alliances mainly with Turkey and Qatar on the expense of Egypt’s III with GCC as these were the countries that supported their elections regardless of such FP concentration effect on Egypt’s NS.

As for post June 30 revolution, another graph depicts a different III with the same players, where Egypt’s III with Turkey and Qatar revealed significant decrease following their negative statements and support for MB hostile, violent and terroristic actions towards honorable Egyptian Army, current hon. POE Sisi and ultimately June 30 revolution that reflected hon. Egyptian people choice and free will. The assumed Egypt’s III towards the aforementioned countries is stemmed from Egypt’s diplomatic reactions and statements along with the application of Newton’s third law. Worth noting that Egypt’s III with Russia, China and GCC increased and enhanced significantly due to their positions from June 30 revolution evidenced by hon. POE Sisi visit and meetings with these countries honorable leaders. As for US, I assume relations did not deteriorate instead it was kept at normal and put on hold from both sides for further evaluation. What was truly good news for Egypt’s FP is giving more lucrative space and III based on Win/ Win cooperation for African countries in Egypt’s FP and NS strategies.

Finally and answering the title question, personally I think such shift occurred due to international players position from and reactions towards June 30 revolution. Guess it is not permanent depending on true intentions of altering situations but only time will tell. I assume Egypt is rearranging and managing its FP portfolio based on mutual respect and interest along with diversification and pragmatic cost / benefit analysis like any other financial portfolio yet building on its solid FP basics and principals accumulated throughout history while protecting its sovereignty and National Security




About samarabuwarda

Life is a puzzle so make sure to gather the right pieces. Lock the goal&stay focused. Observe,analyze& interpret.
This entry was posted in Egypt, Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Russia, Sisi, Strategy, USA, World and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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